Weekend Reading

I just finished listening to the audio books of Liar’s Poker and When Genius Failed. Fascinating stories if you ask me. I don’t know why it took me so long to read/ listen to both of these books.

Per Wikipedia:
When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management tells the story of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), an American hedge fund which commanded more than $100 billion in assets at its height. Among LTCM’s principals were several former university professors, including two Nobel Prize-winning economists.

Between 1994 and 1998 the fund showed a return on investment of more than 40% per annum. However, its enormously leveraged gamble with various forms of arbitrage involving more than $1 trillion dollars went bad, and in one month, LTCM lost $1.9 billion.

Per Wikipedia:
Liar’s Poker is a non-fiction, semi-autobiographical book by Michael Lewis describing the author’s experiences as a bond salesman on Wall Street during the late 1980s. First published in 1989, it is considered one of the books that define Wall Street during the 1980s, along with Barbarians at the Gate and the fictional The Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe.

Many of the same characters that show up in When Genius Failed were first mentioned in Liar’s Poker while working for Salomon Brothers in the 1970’s and 1980’s (John Meriwether being the prime character in both books).

I highly recommend both books for the exciting stories they tell rather than any trading knowledge that you would gather.

For a fictional look at this era on Wall Street, I highly recommend The Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe.

Leucadia National Corp (LUK)

I am going to start an occasional monthly post that highlights a stock that falls within the definition of a value stock but acts more like a growth stock. Berkshire Hathaway could be the ideal pick for the debut of this type of research but I am going to start with a company that structures itself in a similar fashion, Leucadia National Corporation (LUK).

I will also be looking into stocks such as BRK/A, SHLD, BAM and some of the recent banking stocks that may be undervalued (now and in the near future).

Value Stock of the Month
Leucadia National Corp. (LUK)
Wednesday’s Closing Price: LUK – $54.10

Sector: Financials
Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings
52-week Price: $30.01 – $54.10

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Leucadia is a diversified holding company that has subsidiaries engaged in manufacturing, real estate, medical product development, gaming entertainment, mining, and energy. Does this remind you of Berkshire? Leucadia is known, by some, as a “mini Berkshire Hathaway” with an average annual return of over 22%.

By the way, BRK/A is currently trading along the 200-d m.a. for the first time since last summer ($110k per share). It closed today at $129,475 after reaching a 52-week high of $151,600 in December (a 14% slide). Chart at bottom of blog post.

Leucadia executives Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg each own about 13% of Leucadia’s shares and practice a methodology similar to that of Warren Buffett. A $10,000 investment 5 years ago in LUK is worth $43,029 today.

Leucadia has a strong record of stock market performance due to its strategy of finding assets and companies that are out of favor or troubled and are therefore selling at a discount to their inherent value.

The stock just made a new 52-week high after using the 200-d m.a. as support while giving us a 10-week/30-week moving average crossover to the upside. My ideal accumulation area is near (slightly above or slightly below) the 200-day moving average (currently near $46). In hindsight, late 2006 and early 2007 was the “true’ ideal time to buy before the latest run. However, I should have listened to my old friend Kevin Pickell and grabbed shares years ago.

I was completely off on my timing of SHLD back in May 2007 so I may not be that bright when it comes to value companies but it’s time to start a new portfolio for my family that isn’t so young/fast time growth oriented (especially when people are running scared). SHLD will be my next value stock to research as it looks to be entering an area where accumulation is appealing.

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Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $45 (low $40 range is better)
Risk is set at 3.0% of total portfolio or $3,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 25% or $33.75
Number of Shares: 267
Position Size is $12,000
Risk is $11.25
Target is not material (value play)

*Notice the unusually large stop loss and risk versus trading a growth stock.*

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SandRidge Energy (SD)

I screened a stock on Monday named SandRidge Energy (SD) in a post titled, My Latest Stock Watchlist and noted that it made just about every screen I ran over the weekend. I looked back at scans from earlier in the year and it did make a few of them but didn’t grab my attention until now.

SD – 44.28, made almost every screen I ran this week (buy near $40)

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Stock of the Day
Sandridge Energy Inc. (SD)
Monday’s Closing Price: YGE – $44.38

Sector: Oil & Gas
Industry: Oil and Gas Production
52-week Price: $28.50 – $45.40

SandRidge is an independent natural gas and oil company with its principal focus on exploration, development and production activities. The Company also owns and operates drilling rigs and a related oil field services company with focus on exploration and exploitation of its significant holdings in West Texas. SandRidge operates in four segments: exploration and production, drilling and oil field services, midstream gas services and other.

The stock recently logged a new all-time high on increasing volume as it broke-out above the ideal entry area of $41.15. Unfortunately for me, it broke out during the week of my vacation (and return). I can’t say that I would have bought shares but I am interested now. I understand that crude is selling at all-time highs and some people are calling for a top but I am not about to listen to them. Money is still to be made in this industry. By the way, SandRidge is in the #1 rated industry group as produced by Investor’s Business Daily.

Net income was 137% higher than a year ago (3rd quarter) with revenue increasing by 71% during the same time period. Natural gas and crude-oil production jumped nearly five-fold. Shares closed at $31.20 ahead of the 3rd quarter report; it has since given investors a 40%+ gain in a few months.

SD is starting to outperform a few of the top stocks in the top rated industry group, something I do make note of. For example, SD is up 24% YTD as the industry groups as a whole is up 18% YTD. As you will notice, SD shares company with some very respectable names (stocks).

Sister Stocks (Top Rated Industry by IBD):
Range Resources Corp – RRC
Continental Res Inc. – CLR
Quicksilver Resources – KWK
Bois D’Arc Energy LLC – BDE
Petrohawk Energy Corp – HK

Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $41.15
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 10% or $37.04 (breathing room to $36 is okay)
Number of Shares: 243
Position Size is $10,000
Risk is $4.12
Target is $55+ (based on future growth)
Reward-to-Risk is 3.36-to-1 with ideal entry; less with current price

Continue reading to see the impressive institutional numbers, general fundamental numbers and basic technical analysis that make this stock stand above other recent IPO’s. Net income, revenue, earnings and industry (global) growth make this an ideal stock for my watchlist. I am looking for young companies with increasing earnings and sales.

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The Holy Grail of Trading

I have been hearing a lot about trading systems failing or not working properly over the past few months and it makes me smirk every time. A recent article in SFO Magazine states that traditional technical analysis no longer applies due to program trading or computer algorithms making the trades. The author claims that computers don’t have emotions, therefore they don’t buy based on patterns or make decisions the way a human would. He specifically states that moving averages are now useless. Really? I guess I am screwed. Maybe this has some merit but I don’t buy in to it completely.

Traders and investors always seem to blame their systems and/ or indicators for poor performance when 99% of the time they should be looking in the mirror. They need to look in-between the ears to locate the problem. As I have explained in the past, the system is not the Holy Grail of Trading. I wrote a post last year that was missed by many since it was written shortly after the fourth of July holiday. Now seems to be the time to discuss this topic, more so than last summer.

  • What do you think?
  • What is your Holy Grail of Trading?
  • Has your system stopped working or have you disconnected with the changing market environment?

The Holy Grail of Trading:
Understanding you and combining that with sound money management rules. Conquer these two entities and you will be successful beyond your wildest dreams!

Original Post:
Do you have a wonderful trading system, one that consistently makes you money? You probably believe that you have found your holy grail but this couldn’t be further from the truth. Your system has very little to do with consistent profitability in the markets.

I often here amateur investors talk about that the “best way” or “only way” to invest and argue why their way is better than everyone else’s. The passion and energy exuded by these novice investors is wonderful but they are missing the point completely. No one can say that options are better than stocks, commodities are better than options or forex is better than everything, etc… Each investor develops a system that is suited to their own personal character traits and they use a vehicle (stocks, options, forex, commodities, real estate, etc…) that can help them reach their goals.

Investors also debate systems within a market such as: trend trading, swing trading, scalping, shorting, day trading, buy and hold, fundamental trading, technical trading, Elliot wave theory, moving average crossovers, etc… They all work if the “person” understands the holy grail of trading. And that is being able to understand YOU and how your mind works.

However, it is not the system that makes one successful. It is YOU that makes the system work properly. What do I mean? Each individual must master their own personal psychological impacts on their trading results. You must work on YOU to become consistently successful! I recommend reading The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas if you would like to understand the psychological trader in you.

To say that one system or vehicle is the “way to go” is ignorant.

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My latest Stock Watchlist

It’s good to be back, back to research. Honestly, I love researching stocks, even after a long day of work. I don’t consider studying charts work and sometimes believe they help relieve stress after a long day and/or week of ‘regular’ life.

I have not studied the market since late March but ran at least a dozen screens this weekend and viewed hundreds of charts and compiled a list of 10 that I will be watching for possible positions. I will most likely give myself another week or two to get back into the market rhythm but these ten look solid for mid-to-longer term buys (trend/ momentum buys). Remember, we are not day-trading here.

Some names will be familiar as I have owned and/or covered them over the past 6-12 months. Others will be new to the blog but they all have solid fundamental and technical characteristics. These stocks are currently presenting favorable odds for future gains based on the CANSLIM-like characteristics.

I must be clear that I am NOT declaring them buys at this point in time but they should be gearing-up for positive moves giving us potential positions (based on risk/reward setups). The stocks are listed in random order so I am not favoring one more than another until I get my market bearings back.

Let me know what you think of my ten and certainly leave comments for stocks on your watchlists that you think I may be overlooking.

10 Stocks to Watch:

  • MA – 228.60, buys along the 200-d m.a. are ideal for this winner (I own shares)
  • V – 66.11, any accumulation near $60 is ideal in my opinion (I own shares)
  • FSLR – 268.30, extended with an ideal accumulation point above the 50-d m.a.
  • GU – 14.12, the stock gained 60% while I was away; ideal entry near $12
  • PPO – 23.19, good looking young stock with ideal accumulation near $20
  • GTLS – 35.48, poor ending to the week but a buy near the 200-d m.a. is fine
  • TITN – 22.39, solid young stock with an ideal entry point near $20 (looking good)
  • SD – 44.28, made almost every screen I ran this week (buy near $40)
  • CLR – 38.38, yes, this stock is extended but I like it near $30 or the next base
  • RIMM – 115.85, I’ll jump on this one if it has anther run in it (classic superstar)

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